Tribal Football

ANALYSIS: Why Real Madrid's attack struggling ahead of Arsenal showdown

Jason Pettigrove
Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham before the 2025 UEFA Champions League match against Man City
Real Madrid's Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham before the 2025 UEFA Champions League match against Man CityČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Alexandra Fechete
On Wednesday evening Real Madrid take on Arsenal in the second leg of their Champions League quarter-final, and most football watchers would appear to agree that the tie is all but over already after the 3-0 first-leg result in favour of the north Londoners.

Given Los Blancos' record in the competition and their never-say-die attitude where the Champions League is concerned, an early goal for the hosts at the Santiago Bernabeu could really put the cat amongst the pigeons and the Gunners will certainly have to guard against an all-out onslaught from the first whistle.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Mikel Arteta is likely to be drumming it into his players that Arsenal remain unbeaten against Real Madrid in European competition (W2 D1), and haven’t conceded a single goal across their three meetings.

Indeed, they could become the first side ever to keep four consecutive clean sheets against the Spanish giants in the European Cup/Champions League.

History against Los Blancos in the Champions League

It will be a tough ask for the home side to progress as their defeat at the Emirates Stadium was the fifth time they have lost the first leg of a knockout stage tie in the European Cup/Champions League by 3+ goals, and they've gone on to be eliminated in the second leg in three of the previous four occasions (the exception being against Derby County in the last 16 in 1975/76, winning 6-5 on aggregate after a 1-4 defeat in the first leg).

In 53 games that Real have played against English sides in the European Cup/Champions League, they’ve managed to win by more than three goals on just two previous occasions: 5-1 v Derby County in 75/76 and 4-0 v Tottenham Hotspur in 2010/11 (quarter-final).

However, it's also worth noting that since the start of the 2015/16 season this will be the 16th time that Los Blancos have played the second leg of a Champions League knockout stage tie at home and of the previous 15, they’ve only been eliminated on one solitary occasion (vs Ajax in the last 16 in 2018/19).

What's more, they've progressed from the last eight knockout stage games in a row, and you just can't write Carlo Ancelotti's side off.

Kylian Mbappe has been directly involved in eight goals in eight knockout stage games against English sides in the Champions League (seven goals, one assist), including five in four home outings (four goals, one assist).

His attacking colleague, Vinicius Junior, is currently on 28 goals and 21 assists, and could become the fourth different Real Madrid player to reach 50 goal involvements in the Champions League (after Cristiano Ronaldo, Karim Benzema, and Raul), which would be at least twice as many as any other team (Lewandowski and Muller for Bayern).

This season, however, both Vinicius and Mbappe as well as Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo have come in for quite a lot of criticism.

Real Madrid have flattered to deceive this season

One of European football's most feared attacks have certainly had their moments but they've also flattered to deceive in a number of big matches.

For example, they've already been hammered in two El Clasico games against Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup and LaLiga, with the Copa del Rey final and another league game against the eternal rival to come.

Both at least give Los Blancos the chance of some redress.

In fact, if results stay the same in the Spanish top-flight until Real head to the Estadio Lluis Companys, then either Barca can all but wrap up the title with a win - as they're currently four points ahead at the top of the table - or Real can make the end of the 2024/25 campaign very interesting indeed.

Barcelona have already beaten Real Madrid twice this season.
Barcelona have already beaten Real Madrid twice this season.AA/ABACA / Abaca Press / Profimedia

Los Blancos will need their protagonists to step up to the plate between now and then of course.

Last season Bellingham started like a train and by the end of the 2023/24 campaign had plundered 23 goals whilst providing 13 assists.

Vini Jr. topped the scoring charts with 24 as well as setting up another nine goals, whilst Rodrygo weighed in with 17 goals and eight assists as Real won LaLiga at a canter and were as dominant as usual in the Champions League.

Although Mbappe is flying with 32 goals and four assists this season, he drew a blank in one Clasico, opened the scoring in the other but was on the end of a 5-2 defeat, and was something of a bystander at the Emirates.

In some respects his scoring record is already reminiscent of Cristiano Ronaldo whilst in Madrid. The Portuguese would get his fair share of big game goals over the time he spent in Spain, but many of his strikes would come against the 'lesser' teams, with respect.

Front three need to dovetail much better for Real Madrid

A hat-trick against Man City has been the highlight for the Frenchman so far, with his only other treble coming against Valladolid, who are rock bottom in LaLiga. Braces against the likes of Leganes (19th), Las Palmas (18th) and goals vs Espanyol (15th) and Sevilla (14th) massage his numbers.

Vini Jr has 19 and 11 assists in 24/25, Bellingham's weighed in with 13 and 12 respectively whilst Rodrygo has 13 goals and nine assists.

All of those numbers are decent enough at first glance but there still seems to be something missing.

Arsenal vs Real Madrid Champions League First Leg Match Stats
Arsenal vs Real Madrid Champions League First Leg Match StatsOpta by Stats Perform

Perhaps it's to do with Vini Jr's poor 77.7% pass completion statistic, the worst in the entire Real Madrid squad.

Or the shooting accuracy of Rodrygo (55.4%), Bellingham (53.9%) and Vini Jr (54.6%) - all of which need to be significantly improved upon.

Often, when the Los Blancos attack have borne down on their opponent's defence only for chances to go begging, the players have turned on each other. 

Seeing Bellingham beating the turf in frustration has happened on more than one occasion this season, and coming in off the left side hasn't always suited Vini Jr whose interchanging of positions with Mbappe in the middle has seemingly had its issues too.

Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham refuses to shake hands with his England colleague, Arsenal's Declan Rice
Real Madrid's Jude Bellingham refuses to shake hands with his England colleague, Arsenal's Declan RiceMatchDay Images Limited / Alamy / Profimedia

Defending from the front certainly doesn't appear to be in the strikers' vocabulary either. Mbappe has only made 15 tackles in all competitions this season by way of example, followed by Vini Jr's 35 and Rodrygo's 45. At least Bellingham has put himself about a bit and made 85 tackles - the joint most in the squad along with Eduardo Camavinga.

The simplest of analogies as to Real's current woes would be that the wheels haven't been oiled quite as well as the previous campaign, and one might even go as far as to suggest that the purchase of Mbappe was actually because Real wanted to flex their financial muscles rather than the French World Cup winner being a purchase that was absolutely right for the team at the time. 

A signing very much in the Galactico mould you might say.

Though his numbers do speak for themselves the fact is that he hasn't yet fired his club to glory and if Los Blancos were to be beaten in the Copa del Rey final, there's every chance that Mbappe and his teammates could end the season without silverware.

For a squad with an attack that's being lauded throughout the world as one of the best, that simply isn't good enough.

Follow the match with Flashscore.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore