Tribal Football

Germany in the final? England's potential path to Euro 2024 glory

Brad Ferguson
England's striker Harry Kane applauds the fans following the International friendly football match between England and Bosnia-Herzegovina
England's striker Harry Kane applauds the fans following the International friendly football match between England and Bosnia-HerzegovinaAFP
England are aiming to end their 58-year trophy drought when they roll into Germany for the European Championships - and they're heading into the tournament as the bookmakers' favourites.

Gareth Southgate's side have gone close in their last few attempts, including reaching the semi-final of the World Cup in Russia in 2018 and narrowly losing to Italy on penalties in the final of Euro 2020.

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Now, the nation expects to overcome that final hurdle and finally secure a first-ever European title and the first trophy since lifting the World Cup in 1966.

It's not always as simple as that, as all fans of the English national side will be fully aware of, with fans up and down the country readying their wall charts and pens and plotting out likely scenarios and paths ahead of Euro 2024 kicking off on June 14th.

The upcoming edition will comprise 24 teams, with Georgia the only team making their European Championship finals debut. Group winners, runners-up and the best four third-placed teams will advance to the round of 16, with that latter fact making preparing for potential routes a tiny bit more complicated.

Flashscore's going to give it a go for you, though.

Group stages

England sit in Group C alongside Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia. On paper, it's a very decent draw and it's hard to imagine the Three Lions finishing in anything other than top spot in the group, let alone scraping into third.

While there will be no easy games, England has shown in recent tournaments a newfound ability to remain patient and take their chances to overcome resolute, more defensive-minded tactics against "smaller" nations, even going on to win some of these earlier games by large margins.

Group C
Group CFlashscore

That said, they'll need to get some early jitters out of the way when they face Serbia in their opener on June 16th. If all goes to plan, they'll head into the game against Denmark on the 20th knowing a win will likely see them finish first in the group.

Denmark arguably poses the biggest threat for Southgate in the group, but England historically has a decent record against the Danes, having faced them a fair few times in recent years.

Another win over Slovenia - and escaping horrific injuries to Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and John Stones - and suddenly, we're into the last 16 knockout rounds. So what might await them?

The other groups

It's the usual big hitters to be watching out for as realistic contenders to claim the Euro 2024 crown.

Two-time European champions France are up there again and likely pose the greatest threat to any team in the world, and all eyes will be on Real Madrid's new man, Kylian Mbappe, who'll be keen to dance in the spotlight once again.

France's forward #10 Kylian Mbappe gestures during the International friendly football match between France and Luxembourg
France's forward #10 Kylian Mbappe gestures during the International friendly football match between France and LuxembourgAFP

The French are in Group D, which looks to be one of the trickier groups. Austria and Poland can cause teams problems on their days, while the Netherlands are also quietly confident they could go on to win the whole thing.

Still, you'd have to expect France to top the group unless something goes drastically wrong for them in the early stages - which has definitely happened to them in the past. In order, we'll go with France, Netherlands, Austria and Poland.

Portugal are another side the bookies fancy, blessed with talent all over the pitch and ready to send star man Cristiano Ronaldo riding off into the sunset with a second European Championship.

Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal warms up ahead of the Euro 2024 qualifying playoff semi-final between Slovenia and Portugal
Cristiano Ronaldo of Portugal warms up ahead of the Euro 2024 qualifying playoff semi-final between Slovenia and PortugalAFP

They're in Group F with the Czech Republic, Georgia and Turkey, so you can't see them having too many issues at this stage. It's hard to look past them topping the group here, too, with Czech Republic second and probably Turkey nabbing third.

Hosts Germany are somewhat resurgent after their dismal showings in the previous Euros and World Cup. Julian Nagelsmann has rebuilt the national side into something more youthful and exciting, and the home crowd bounce could be just what their players need to recover from the recent international slumps.

They have a relatively comfortable group and kick off their campaign against Scotland in the opener on July 14th.

You never know what you might get from the Scots, though. They boast a pretty decent squad filled with Premier League experience and passionate players who can pack a punch. These tournaments are also no strangers to opening-day shocks.

Still, even losing or drawing that first game, the Germans will surely have enough about them to get enough points out of fellow Group A-ers Hungary and Switzerland to just about top the group. Scotland are probably looking at third but definitely have a chance at second.

Then there's the rest: Belgium are a fading force but should comfortably overcome Romania, Ukraine and Slovakia, while it's a toss-up Group B between Spain and Italy. For the purposes of moving things along, let's say Spain manage a narrow victory over the defending champions Italy, with Croatia following up in third.

Knockouts and best of third places

Here's where it all goes a bit funky.

The four best third-placed teams will then progress into the knockouts. Judging by all that nonsense you just read, it looks like Croatia, Scotland, Austria, and maybe Ukraine. Who knows? It doesn't matter. Actually, it does.

At this stage, England faces one of those "lucky losers"; in this instance, it's Ukraine, but it could be Austria (or Poland) or Turkey (or Georgia). Romania or Slovakia if one of those finishes third in Group E.

England's striker #20 Harry Kane reacts after failing to score during the International friendly football match between England and Bosnia-Herzegovina
England's striker #20 Harry Kane reacts after failing to score during the International friendly football match between England and Bosnia-HerzegovinaAFP

Finish second, though, and England could play the Germans in the first knockout round, which would not be ideal. Let's not think about that.

Otherwise, most of the big boys generally avoid each other if all the group winners are as they should be.

The business end big boys

So all of them progress, and suddenly, we have some big quarter-final matches that probably won't happen because of football.

At this stage, should Italy get past Switzerland, Gareth Southgate and co will be booking a quarter-final catch-up with their old Wembley conquerors from a few years ago. You also see Belgium falling to France and then a bit of guesswork between Portugal against the Netherlands and Spain facing Germany.

England are going to win, obviously, because it's coming home etc. We'll plump for Portugal and France to do this business and just assume that the Germans will make their home advantage count. 

So now we're down to the semis, which is looking like: Germany versus Portugal and France versus England.

This means it's hard to envisage a run to the final for England without encountering an Italy (or Switzerland if lucky) and then a France or Belgium.

Thus, it's likely to be the reward of a grand final against the Spanish, the Dutch or the Germans on Sunday, 14th July.

There's no clear run - as there shouldn't be, and it feels like there's not going to be "a good side of the draw".

Can a smaller nation like the Czech Republic, Switzerland, Scotland, Ukraine - even Croatia or Denmark - cause a surprise? Sure, it's been done before. But it's looking likely that the bigger nations will have a pretty clear path to the quarter-finals at the very least.

But hey, this is football. Maybe it's Georgia's to lose.